Analysts expected second-quarter Tesla sales and deliveries to be well off the pace of the same time last year. But with Q2 delivery figures out, Tesla didn’t live up to the early expectations of expert analysts across 23 separate estimates. Although the disparity isn’t much, the news follows big moves at Tesla to bolster sales. 

Tesla sales, deliveries fell more sharply than analysts expected in Q2 2025, marking a 13.5% decline from last year

Expert analysts anticipated that Tesla would deliver around 394,378 EVs in the second quarter of 2025. It was an average of 23 separate delivery estimates. Another analysis put Q2 deliveries closer to 387,180. However, the electric automaker brand didn’t quite meet that figure. But, all things considered, the total number of Tesla sales and deliveries in Q2 2025 wasn’t all that far off.

According to the automaker, deliveries for Q2 2025 totaled about 384,122 units, very nearly 10,000 vehicles off the Visible Alpha target. While that sounds like a lot, it’s a mere 2.6% shy of the analyst estimates. Reuters, however, reported that some analysts put that delivery figure as low as 360,080 units. In that case, Tesla met and exceeded sales expectations.

But it is a substantial dropoff from Q2 2024. This time last year, Tesla delivered 443,956 units. That’s a drop of 13.5% year-over-year. Ouch. The news follows moves by the automaker that should have bolstered sales among the Tesla faithful.

For instance, Tesla updated its best-seller, the Model Y, this year. In addition to the refreshed Model Y, Tesla started offering Robotaxi services, hinted at a cheaper consumer EV, and announced the arrival of a bare-bones, RWD Cybertruck Long Range. 

As for the “why” behind the “what” of the off-target deliveries, the automaker has several things working against it. For starters, market competition from China poses a serious threat to Tesla’s bottom line. As such, the Chinese market has been a disappointment for Tesla since late last year. That said, things might be turning around for Tesla; June marked the first time Tesla sales rose in China in eight months.

Europe also remains a volatile market for Tesla. CEO Elon Musk’s far-right political leanings have badly tarnished the brand’s image on the continent. As a result, Tesla has endured a 45.2% decrease in new European registrations during the first five months of 2025, per Business Insider. Finally, stationary assembly lines in Texas to facilitate the Model Y refresh hampered some earlier 2025 deliveries. However, with cheaper models on the horizon, Tesla’s performance for 2025 may pick up in the second half.