Drivers in Florida may soon face an unusual twist in their relationship with their insurer: instead of paying more, they might get money back. Progressive Insurance revealed in a recent SEC filing that its profits in the state have grown so large that they could surpass the limit set by Florida law.

The company explained that since insurance reforms went into effect in 2023, costs for certain car accident claims dropped. In turn, reserves developed more favorably than expected.

Even after lowering auto rates twice in the past year, Progressive warned it still might exceed the statutory profit cap covering 2023 through 2025

Progressive also cautioned that the calculation is not final.

The hurricane season, which runs through November, still poses risk, and reserve adjustments into early 2026 could shift the numbers.

Florida statutes require insurers to report when profits exceed allowable margins and to refund the excess

These rules are intended to keep carriers from reaping windfalls at the expense of policyholders. State officials pointed to recent rate cuts as proof the reforms are working.

In July, Insurance Commissioner Mike Yaworsky reported that the state’s five largest auto insurers were showing an average 6.5% rate decrease for 2025.

That stands in contrast to the sharp increases of the past two years, including a more than 30% hike in 2023. Governor Ron DeSantis credited tort reform and pledged to keep those changes intact.

Auto glass lawsuits dropped sharply after a 2023 bill banned assignment of benefits for repairs

That (now retired) practice let repair shops take over a driver’s insurance claim and go after insurers directly for payment, which fueled a flood of lawsuits.

The lawsuits mostly came from auto glass shops suing insurance companies. When drivers signed over their claim rights under assignment of benefits, shops could bypass the customer and take insurers to court directly if they disagreed with what the insurer was willing to pay. 

Many cases centered on disputed repair bills. Shops would argue the insurer underpaid, while insurers said the claims were inflated. The 2023 ban cut off that pathway, which is why lawsuit numbers collapsed so quickly.

Case in point: once the ban took effect, cases fell from nearly 25,000 in the second quarter of 2023 to just over 2,600 in the same period in 2024, Repairer Driven News shared. A 2022 measure that eliminated one-way attorney fees tied to these claims also helped reduce the legal load.

In other words, since Progressive isn’t as tied up with court cases, it has a lot more revenue from collected premiums left over.

Florida isn’t the only state where insurers are adjusting rates downward

In Louisiana, the insurance commissioner recently announced that multiple carriers are cutting premiums as accident numbers fall and legal reforms begin to take hold.

Refunds tied to excessive insurer profits are rare, but they have precedent. States such as California and New York also have mechanisms that force carriers to return money if profit margins climb too high.

Florida now joins that conversation, with Progressive’s disclosure showing how regulatory formulas and falling claim costs can combine to put drivers, for once, on the receiving end.

Progressive hasn’t said how much money might go back to drivers

The final refund will depend on several factors, including hurricane-related claims through November 2025 and adjustments to accident reserves in early 2026.