When a young family walked into Galaxy Toyota in Middletown Township, New Jersey, on a cold January morning, they knew exactly what they wanted: a Toyota Sienna XLE with all-wheel drive for their ski trips to Vermont and shuttling four kids to lacrosse practice. 

Greg Moore Jr. (@gregmoorejr), a car salesman at Galaxy Toyota in Middletown Township, New Jersey, let them know that it would be an iffy proposition. 

Timing Is Everything With Toyota Inventory

His five-minute clip details that finding that specific vehicle, especially in the current market, means playing a high-stakes dice game.

“I had a couple of customers come in and said, ‘Look, we need a Sienna XLE,’’” he started. “’In addition, it needs to be all-wheel drive. We got four kids. We go to Vermont. We go skiing a lot. The kids play lacrosse. Do you have this?’”

Moore had the perfect situation all laid out for himself and the family.

“Now, when a customer comes to specifically ask for a vehicle, and you’re like, ‘Alright,’—not that the work is halfway done, but you got the vehicle,” he continued. “That’s one pillar that’s already knocked out, right? I pulled the car. They liked the way it drove. They liked that it’s a hybrid. They liked the space of it.”

The family loved the vehicle, even test-drove it. But then, when it was time to set up a sale, they weren’t ready and told him, “Oh, we want to go look at a (Jeep) Wagoneer.”

From here, Moore’s position gets a little wishy-washy because, sure, he’s trying to tell a “better get it while it’s hot” story. But there’s also obvious disappointment over a missed sale. He even takes a dig at the Jeep dealership later in the video, but it details a greater issue.

“You don’t realize, like, inventory’s so [expletive] right now,” he said. “You’re going to come back two weeks from now, and you’re going to restart your car search.”

“Timing is everything,” he said. “This inventory is so sporadic now.”

Let’s consider Moore’s take.

What Does the Data Say

Moore is absolutely correct. The total inventory of 3.01 million units represents an ongoing 2.8% year-over-year decline, per S&P. Sales volume is also down about 4% year over year, indicating fewer buyers are completing deals.

With Toyota and Lexus, specifically, vehicles sit at 41 days’ supply or fewer, leaving dealers with little need to negotiate pricing. Toyota and Honda have the tightest supply and least negotiable prices among mainstream automakers, according to CarEdge.

Per CarsDirect, and to Moore’s point, Toyota’s Sienna model is experiencing an inventory shortage at dealers across the U.S., with shoppers expected to pay MSRP or higher, and in some cases requiring months-long waits. On a Siennachat forum, a person commented that they “couldn’t find any deals in a radius of 300 miles, so I ended up paying sticker.”

On the other end, Jeep dealers currently have a 146-day supply, and Lincoln has a 155-day supply, per Kelley Blue Book. So Moore is correct about Toyota, but it is not a universal issue.

What Is the Real Issue for Moore?

The reality for Moore is that right now, patient, well-qualified buyers who aren’t in a hurry still have more options than it seems.

Would that family be inconvenienced if they came back to buy the Sienna with all-wheel drive, only to find it was already sold? Sure. Perhaps they would have to go to another state or order and put down the deposit. Or they can do none of those things and go see the Wagoneer at the nearby Jeep dealership.

For Moore, the situation is much more serious. Lower sales volumes directly impact commission-based earnings for salespeople. The tight inventory, of course, means fewer units available to sell.

If you’re not meeting the mark, or even if you are, people like Moore are in big trouble, especially in what is a feast or famine situation for some makers. According to CDK Global, “As a whole, dealerships lost an average of 3.3 salespeople in the course of the year. Given the average headcount for the Sales department is 8.2 people, that represents a considerable 40% rate of turnover.”

This also means that the remaining salespeople are under even greater pressure to make sales.

Sometimes They Make “Idiotic” Decisions

The comments for the video are interesting, but require some amateur psychology.

“Agreed, great take as well. I’m definitely the same,” said one fellow salesman. “I want the best for the customer and their family. Cars will be sold regardless; I’m all for the customer. But sometimes they make idiotic decisions lol. Especially thinking a good vehicle will sit there and wait for you, mind you, tax season is approaching lol.”

Moore liked the comment.

What has to be understood is that the buyer/salesman relationship is adversarial at its core, no matter how nice Moore or any salesperson is. The buyer’s rational interest is to compare prices, test-drive other cars, and wait for the all-wheel-drive or trim they want. But ultimately, a savvy buyer will negotiate when they are ready and will usually not buy anything at the sticker price, even if they need to travel to get what they want.

Moore’s interest, like all salespeople, is to maintain leverage. This means getting the buyer to purchase a specific car they’ve guided them toward, at the price they’ve told them, and to do it today.

Note the commenter’s use of “idiotic decisions.” The customer wants to comparison shop? Idiotic, because you’ll lose the car. The customer wants to wait a week to think it over? Idiotic, because tax season is coming.

The reality is that it becomes a zero-sum game, just barely masked as a partnership. If the customer leaves and buys the Jeep, in Moore’s instance, the salesperson loses. On one level, Toyota’s inventory shortage seems ideal, but it will only be useful if it keeps the customer on the lot and in the finance office.MotorBiscuit has reached out to both Moore and Toyota via email.

@gregmoorejr Timing is everything, & Toyota is the best ??‍??? #consistency #contentcreator #trusttheprocess #fyp #carsalesman ♬ original sound – Gregory Moore