According to a new study, of the $200 million the United States made from President Donald Trump’s tariffs in 2025, 96% was paid by American buyers. The study drew from data covering over 25 million transactions valued at nearly $4 trillion.

A major selling point of President Trump’s series of tariffs on other countries was that they would pay the United States for their imports and, in turn, boost the American economy. However, the study, published by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy in Germany, found the opposite occurred.

“The 2025 US tariffs are an own goal: American importers and consumers bear nearly the entire cost. Foreign exporters absorb only about 4% of the tariff burden—the remaining 96% is passed through to US buyers,” the report stated.

Americans not only paid more because of the tariffs, but they also had fewer options

The study claims that while U.S. customs revenue surged by approximately $200 billion in 2025, trade volumes collapsed, and export prices did not fall. The study cited the tariff hikes the U.S. imposed on India in August 2025.

“We compared Indian exports to the US with shipments to Europe and Canada and identified a clear pattern,” Julian Hinz, Research Director at the Kiel Institute and one of the authors of the study, explained. “Both export value and volume to the US dropped sharply, by up to 24 percent. But unit prices—the prices Indian exporters charged—remained unchanged. They shipped less, not cheaper.”

Basically, the study found that instead of other countries paying the tariffs to the United States and growing the U.S. economy, American consumers faced higher prices as companies passed the tariffs on to them. The tariffs also reduced trade volumes, meaning Americans not only paid more, but they also had fewer options.

The United States is a large market, but it is not the only market

As the study explained, “Exporters facing U.S. tariffs can redirect their sales to Europe, Asia, or other destinations. If redirecting sales is feasible, exporters have less incentive to cut prices specifically for U.S. buyers.”

“Even if an exporter cuts prices, a 50% tariff is extremely difficult to overcome through price concessions. An exporter would need to cut their price by one-third just to offset a 50% tariff—a margin cut that would likely be unprofitable for most firms. Given the choice between maintaining margins on reduced sales or slashing margins to maintain volume, most exporters apparently prefer the former.”

According to the study, (1) tariffs are a tax on Americans, (2) tariffs do not transfer wealth from foreigners to Americans, (3) trade volumes adjust, not prices, and (4) supply chains bear significant costs.

As the study’s authors concluded in their report, “The claim that foreign countries ‘pay’ these tariffs is a myth.”