If I tell my mom I am driving anywhere during the holidays, her response is always the same. “Be careful, everyone’s drunk out there!” The exaggeration has become a running family joke. Still, experts at the National Safety Council say her concern isn’t unfounded.

The NSC reports that more than one-third of traffic fatalities over the New Year’s holiday involve at least one alcohol-impaired driver. This year, the council expects traffic deaths to spike by 140%.

More than 100 million U.S. drivers are expected to hit the road during this holiday period. The NSC projects that 429 people will lose their lives in traffic crashes over New Year’s.

Why the New Year’s holiday is especially dangerous

The elevated risk for 2025-26 comes down to timing. New Year’s Day falls on a Wednesday this year, which stretches the holiday “period” to four days. The window runs from 6 p.m. Dec. 31 through 11:59 p.m. Sunday, Jan. 4.

A longer holiday period means more parties, more alcohol consumption, and more impaired driving. That combination typically leads to more fatal crashes.

History supports the projection. In 2019, New Year’s Eve also fell on a Wednesday. The NSC predicted 438 traffic deaths. The final count came in at 428.

Despite the risks, New Year’s Eve often sees fewer alcohol-related traffic deaths than Christmas, Thanksgiving, and major summer holidays.

“It’s well known there’s a lot of excessive drinking, and perhaps people are taking the appropriate steps to be safe, and not drink and drive,” said Ken Kolosh, the NSC’s statistics manager.

That means planning ahead matters. Consider public transit, rideshares, or taxis. My mom would approve.