Tesla Is Predicted to Plummet – Can the Cybertruck Save It?

Tesla is the automaker with the largest share of electric vehicles (EVs) on the roads, by far. Yet can it retain its hold on the EV market? It doesn’t seem likely, at least according to a recent analysis of not only Tesla and its upcoming electric vehicles, but also other, more traditional car manufacturers. Here’s what’s happening in Tesla news, how it’s expected to lose its top spot as an electric vehicle maker, and what impact the long-awaited Cybertruck may have on its future.

A rendering of a Tesla Cybertruck.
Tesla Cybertruck rendering | Tesla

The latest Tesla news suggests that it may not stay at the top

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Tesla has been the dominant automaker in the electric vehicle market for some time now. It has created electric vehicles that make people who’d never have looked twice at an EV seriously consider them, or even buy one. Yet with that popularity that Tesla’s electric vehicles have had comes competition. Other automakers are making highly functional, attractive EVs at affordable prices – and it’s challenging Tesla’s dominance. The latest news shows that those companies are poised to give Tesla a serious run for its money.

Ward’s Auto says that two car makers in particular are winning the electric vehicle market. Both Ford and GM have put out some really great electric vehicles, as studied by John Murphy of Merrill Lynch. He puts out an annual study about the state of the automotive world called “Car Wars.” He says that “GM and Ford have different strategies around EVs, but both appear solid.” This will allow the two auto manufacturers to take a bigger share of the market.

Tesla’s share of the electric vehicle market will ‘plunge’

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Murphy’s Car Wars study shows that both Ford and GM are going to be able to take away the largest chunk of the electric vehicle market from Tesla by 2026. While right now Tesla holds an astonishingly high 70% of the electric vehicle market, in 2026 it’s predicted to have only an 11% stake. What will cause Tesla to lose its hold? “Even though it has transformed the automotive market, Tesla has not moved quickly enough to shut out competitors who will be able to offer a variety of newer models.”

Could the Tesla Cybertruck save it? Excitement around the super-unique electric pickup truck has been building, and it could revolutionize the electric vehicle market. Still, Cybertruck production is probably going to ramp up slowly, which may not help Tesla keep its stronghold on the electric vehicle market.

Automakers are spending more on electric vehicles

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Murphy says that overall, new vehicle sales are down. In fact, since 2016, they’re down 21%. Yet people still want and need new vehicles, so demand remains high. That means that car companies are still making money. And more than ever, they’re spending that extra money on electric vehicles. In 2018, auto makers spent $218 billion on electric vehicles. Now, that number has jumped up to $500 billion.

Because car companies replace older vehicles frequently, Murphy says that Ford and Toyota are poised to have a larger number of electric vehicles in their fleets. GM is also in a good position. “GM is launching numerous models, including low-volume models, while planning fewer high-volume models.” Murphy’s study also shows that Stellantis and Nissan aren’t in great positions to make a major mark in the electric vehicle segment anytime soon.

This may be not be good news for Tesla, but all is not lost. If the Cybertruck proves to be as popular as some are hoping, it could have major benefits for Tesla. And if Tesla is able to increase Cybertruck production to meet large-scale demand, that could help it keep a larger percentage of the electric vehicle market.

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