The Tesla Model Y dominated EV sales last year, but things aren’t looking so good in 2025
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It’s been a big year for Tesla. On the one hand, the electric automaker rolled out new models and self-driving taxis to rival other self-driving ride services. On the other hand, a tarnished brand image and idle production lines have hemorrhaged sales. So much so that even the brand’s best-seller, the Tesla Model Y, isn’t looking too hot in 2025.
The Tesla Model Y absolutely dominated the EV market in 2024. 2025 isn’t quite so kind to the best-selling SUV
The Tesla Model Y owned the EV segment in 2024. Sales estimates for the year put the Model Y ahead of its sibling and closest competitor, the Model 3, by as many as 260,800 units. If that wasn’t enough of a gap, Tesla sales estimates put the Model Y ahead of the next eight EVs combined. But, and it’s a big one, 2025 isn’t being as kind to Tesla’s best seller.
According to sales estimates from Cox Automotive, Tesla sold around 64,051 Model Ys in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a precipitous drop of 33.8% year-over-year from the best-selling EV’s 96,729 sales in Q1 2024. Granted, the Model Y is still the highest-volume EV on the US market. But the decline is also the steepest by volume drop in the segment from one year to the next.
Now, Tesla says that the primary driver of the lower sales figures isn’t the damaged brand image. Instead, Tesla blames the comparably lackluster Q1 sales on the idle period as the brand prepped the updated “Juniper” model for production.
But we’re at the end of Q2. The updated Model Y is currently available in two trims and a Robotaxi software-equipped version recently delivered itself to a new buyer. That said, Tesla stopped production of the Model Y and Cybertruck at Giga Texas this week, leaving assembly lines shut down yet again.
However, the halt is temporary, and the 10-million-square-foot plant will start rolling out the EV SUV again soon. Still, experts anticipate that Q2 sales will reflect another steep drop compared to the same period last year.
According to Reuters, Tesla is expected to have delivered fewer than 400,000 EVs in the second quarter of 2025. It could be a year-over-year decline of around 11%. While that’s not as bad as the 13% decline from the previous quarter, it’s not exactly a stellar performance. Altogether, expert analysts from Visible Alpha suggest that Tesla’s sales could drop around 8% in 2025. And the Model Y could lose a sizable part of its market dominance in the process.
