Tesla BEVs To Lose Crown to Volkswagen by 2024

Tesla is the number one producer of electric cars in the world, but it might not hold on to that title for too long. Legacy and well-established automakers have had difficulty ramping up to the battery electric vehicle (BEV) production levels of the exclusively electric marque. However, times are changing, and many of the world’s largest automakers are electrifying. As it stands right now, Volkswagen and maybe BYD will take Tesla’s BEV crown by 2024. 

Does Tesla make the most BEVs in the world?

Tesla currently makes the most BEVs of any automaker in the world. By operating four major factories (some of which carry the moniker Gigafactory), Elon Musk’s marque has EVs on every corner of the planet. Further, Tesla runs a factory in Shanghai, China, to produce the Model 3 and Model Y for regional distribution, a feat that no other American automaker has accomplished without a state-mandated partnership. 

Tesla BEVs might lose their crown to Volkswagen and BYD as soon as 2024.
A black Tesla displays its badge | Christian Marquardt, Getty Images

According to Bloomberg, Tesla’s market cap is $686 billion. Shockingly, that is more than double all of the European and American legacy manufacturers combined. However, Tesla’s market dominance is bound to face competition from some automakers. As of now, Volkswagen aims to give Tesla the biggest run for its money. 

How will Volkswagen manufacture more BEVs than Tesla by 2024?

Unlike many other well-established manufacturers, Volkswagen’s production and sales mix are much closer to equitable distribution of electric vehicles and combustion vehicles. The German automaker has the potential to sell 30% BEVs next year and 45% in 2025. Those figures put Volkswagen well ahead of the competition. Volkswagen is on track to replace Tesla as the most high-volume BEV producer in the world by 2024. 

“Looking ahead, automakers in Europe, China, and elsewhere will continue to challenge Tesla via an impending wave of new models,” said Michael Dean, a senior analyst from Bloomberg Intelligence. Volkswagen is reportedly the only major automaker with an incentive to scale up to Tesla’s BEV production. 

Which companies make the most BEVs?

In addition to Tesla, Volkswagen and the Chinese company BYD produce the most significant numbers of dedicated BEVs. BYD, a sales juggernaut in China, has the third spot overall for BEVs but doesn’t sell BEVs exclusively like Tesla. Instead, the marque also makes hybrid vehicles. 

When will major manufacturers compete with Tesla?

Volkswagen and BYD might take Tesla's BEV crown by 2024.
A Volkswagen and Telsa badge head-to-head | Ronny Hartmann, Getty Images

Although it may seem more organic for exclusively electric companies like Rivian and Lucid to compete with Tesla, other manufacturers are also vying for Tesla’s crown. BYD isn’t alone in China; Changan Automobile and NIO are also high-volume producers of BEVs. Furthermore, European companies like Volvo, Mercedes-Benz, and Jaguar are focusing on electrification. However, in the case of European luxury marques, there is simply no hope of competing with a manufacturer like Volkswagen.

Barring some massive shift in the EV production landscape, Bloomberg says Tesla will lose its top spot to Volkswagen in the next couple of years. However, if BYD continues to perform the way it is, it will also overtake Tesla’s BEV production. After all, CNBC says that China is the single largest automotive market in the world. 

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