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Let’s face it: Tesla crushed it last year. The Model Y was the best-selling EV by a wide margin and the fourth best seller on the market from any segment in the United States. But Tesla’s car sales figures aren’t quite up to last year’s standards, and the delivery estimates for Q2 2025 aren’t doing too well. 

Barclays expects Tesla sales, deliveries to come in around 25,000 units off consensus estimates for Q2 2025

2025 has been something of a critical year for Tesla. CEO Elon Musk’s public antics have adversely affected the electric car marque’s image. A substantial update to the best-selling Model Y both slowed production and promised to bring the SUV into a new era. And Tesla plans on rolling out the self-driving Robotaxi AVs in Austin, Texas, soon. But on the car sales front, Tesla is hurting compared to last year. 

According to Barclays, experts expect Tesla to deliver around 375,000 EVs in Q2 2025. That’s 25,000 short of the industry consensus that the marque would deliver around 400,000 units. It’s also a 10% drop year-over-year. It’s still better news than Tesla’s disastrous first sales quarter in 2025. Barclays puts Q2 at an 11% sequential increase, despite the ugly year-over-year loss from Q2 2024 to Q2 2025.

However, Barclays seems optimistic that Tesla could have a much healthier second half of the year. That is, if Tesla rolls out the rumored affordable model to undercut the Model 3’s starting price of $42,490 before the $7,500 federal incentive. “The planned launch of a more affordable model in 1H25 (first half of 2025) could potentially be a catalyst for strong 2H (second half) volumes,” Barclays said.

Barclays also seems to think that Tesla investors may overlook the sales pitfalls in favor of the brand’s work with self-driving applications. “The Tesla narrative has increasingly turned to AV/Robotaxi, with investors likely more focused on the planned June 22nd Robotaxi launch and Tesla’s path to scaling AV (autonomous vehicles) than on 2Q deliveries/overall fundamentals,” Barclays Bank wrote in a recent research note.

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Staff Writer

Erik Sherman

Erik Sherman is a MotorBiscuit Staff Writer, an admitted petrolhead, a survivor of classic cars, and an avid motorcyclist. Erik covers Tesla daily, including the Model Y and Cybertruck. Erik also covers Toyota, often discussing the Tundra, Tacoma, RAV4, 4Runner, and Camry. Erik also has extensive experience with military and emergency vehicles, ranging from ambulances and fire engines to MRAPs and Humvees. Erik is a United States Marine Corps combat veteran, a former water survival specialist, and a former firefighter/EMT. He holds a Bachelor’s Degree from the University of Texas at Austin.