Toyota’s RAV4 is the best-selling vehicle in the U.S. that isn’t a truck. But a new trade war could send its price skyrocketing. President Donald Trump has threatened tariffs as high as 100% on Canadian-made cars. If that happens, Toyota’s cost for selling you a RAV4 (built in Ontario) would double overnight.

Trump’s 100% tariff threat

In a recent Fox News interview, Trump claimed Canada “stole” the U.S. auto industry. He warned, “If we don’t make a deal with Canada, we’re going to put a big tariff on cars.” That tariff, he said, “could be a 50 or 100 percent because we don’t want their cars.” He added that he wants our cars all assembled in Detroit.

A 100% tariff would mean an immediate price spike for Canadian-built vehicles—including gas-powered RAV4s. Last year, 18% of all Toyotas sold in the U.S. were assembled in Canada. That’s nearly 400,000 vehicles suddenly costing thousands more.

How much will the RAV4 cost?

If the full 100% tariff hits, the RAV4’s $28,000 starting price could conceivably jump to $56,000. Even Toyota’s Kentucky-built RAV4 Hybrid might not escape price hikes. That’s because many parts—like seats and electronics—come from Canada.

Industry leaders warn of disaster. Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers Association, said, “As soon as those tariffs come in, within a week, the industry would be shut down.”

Will Toyota just absorb the cost?

There’s precedent for an automaker taking a tariff hit. When Trump imposed a 25% tariff on the Chinese-built Buick Envision, GM paid the difference. It kept selling the SUV at the same price. As I previously wrote, GM argued moving production “was not feasible.” But Toyota may not have the same option.

Unlike the Envision, the RAV4 is a best-seller, and Toyota builds far more of them. It could try shifting production to Kentucky, but that plant (already Toyota’s biggest in the world) is maxed out making Camrys. And with Trump’s tariffs tied to trade negotiations, Toyota won’t know how long this will last.

What happens next?

For now, Trump has delayed the tariffs while Canada negotiates. But uncertainty remains. Brian Kingston, CEO of the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers Association, warned, “If you put in place tariffs… it could lead to production stoppages, job losses, and of course, price increases.” If a deal isn’t reached, American car buyers could see RAV4 prices soar. Will Toyota eat the cost like GM? Or will buyers be stuck paying nearly $60,000 for a compact SUV? Time—and trade talks—will tell.